Tuesday, August 11, 2015

China. Is the house of cards starting to wobble?

Massive fall in lending, especially in the "shadow banking" sector.
Biggest currency devaluation since true financial market development began in 2000
Massive reduction in reserve requirements for local banks.

I fear the cracks are starting to show, but I suspect that they will succeed in papering over them again for a few more years. My concern is that the longer the inherent contradictions of a communist controlled capitalist economy are allowed to build up, the bigger the final crash will be.

And the outcome of that crash is unpredictable. Will the communists use force to hold on to power, potentially unleashing another civil war, or will they go the way of their USSR counterparts and leave behind a gaping hole which will be filled by rampant cronyism and corruption.

Either way, it'll be interesting to watch. I just hope it's contained within Chinese borders.

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