Friday, May 22, 2015

Over a barrel

That's where the rest of the Eurozone has suddenly realised it is being held by Greece. Everyone seems to have assumed that Greece was the one with the weak hand. How? Why? Greece has all the cards. If they default then it is the EU, the IMF and the ECB who will bear the losses. If they break up EMU then it is the rest of Eurozone that will suddenly be vulnerable. There are plenty of other Europeans who question the Euro - Grexit would embolden them. And they're not fringe players. Marine Le Pen is currently leading polls for the next French presidential election remember.

Greece has now said 5 June is the day they will default, when they fail to pay €300mm to the IMF. They can legitimately claim they have been trying to act in good faith, raiding every piggy bank they can find to pay the bills up to now. But those piggy banks are now empty. Either Europe relents, or Greece defaults and screws them for every penny they've lent so far.

My money's on a sudden solution appearing.