Saturday, April 18, 2015

Russian dolls

Russias's gross GDP numbers are going to be like Russian dolls for a while - each one a little smaller than the previous one.

The US's tactics work. Excluding Russia from capital markets will slowly ratchet up the pressure on the Kremlin. Putin's desperate attempts to talk up the economy for local media consumption a couple of days ago were simply that - desperate. He's screwed and he knows it. The problem is that as he gets more desperate he is likely to view further provocations and expansionist moves as the best way to shore up his popularity at home. Baltic states beware. 

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Russia. Finally someone spots the obvious

There's been lots of talk of Russia bailing out Greece and in return Greece vetoing EU sanctions on their new paymaster.

Finally someone spots the flaw in this plan

"There's no doubt the Russians could provide small amounts of financial support, but they're not in a position to give the kind of money Greece needs to stay in the eurozone," says Simon Tilford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform. "The amounts involved are far beyond the scope of Moscow, whose economy is not much bigger than the Netherlands."

And of course Russia is in a deep recession so it's only going to get worse for the foreseeable future.