Light at the end of the tunnel?

Could there be light at the end of the tunnel? There are commentators talking it up (no one dates mention green shoots yet but it can't be far off) but I'm still suspicious of this burst of optimism, even if it is only cautious optimism at the moment. My imperfect indicators tell me world trade is not on fire - the ships have never been more plentiful off the coast here and that's a bad sign - a parked ship is a ship with nowhere to go and nothing to deliver. I do think e are getting close to the bottom in the UK and US where aggressive early moves to crystallise bad debts and get them off the books are finally bearing fruit, but Europe is still a mess, India is in trouble and Asia, with the exception of debt fuelled Japan, is at best ticking over.

Which brings me neatly to Japan....