Sunday, May 19, 2013

Japan

Abenomics - the ultimate death or glory shot. If it comes off they might just squeak enough growth out of the economy to get their debt under control. Might. If not, then they're totally screwed, with a debt load that is totally unserviceable. Having said that of course, that's the way they're going anyway so this is just going to speed the journey up if that is indeed where they end up.

I have a huge fear the end is going to be messy. The current growth is certainly great news, but I think it's a flash in the pan caused by the sudden devaluation of the Yen. They're starting from too weak a debt position to be able to overcome the problems of structural inertia, terrible demographics and innate Japanese conservatism.

One thought for the investors out there, whichever way it goes, JGBs are a huge sell. 
Success = inflation = rising rates = sell JGBs. 
Failure = bankruptcy and/or hyperinflation = sell JGBs.

No comments:

Post a Comment