Well 2013's feelgood factor didn't last long. So far in 2014 equity markets are well down and bond markets are well up - pretty much the 100% opposite of what every economist was forecasting. Why do banks pay fortunes for these guys - they're best used as a reverse indicator.
But my gut feel is this will pass. Yes there are potentially huge financial problems coming in China, Indonesia is wobbling, Thailand is shooting itself in the foot, India is going nowhere and Brazil is reporting record trade deficits. But, for all the talk of the importance of these places, 50% of the world economy is Europe and the US. Those areas are showing enough signs of recovery to think that there will be a global slowdown, but not a meltdown.
The Fed may or may not continue to reduce its stimulus, but for all the talk of tightening it is in fact still pumping $65bn a month into the US economy, and can increase that again if necessary. The ECB can and will cut rates to 0% if needed, and the Bank of Japan is still printing Yen like it's going out of fashion.
The current wobbles are an over-correction from excessive optimism late last year to excessive pessimism now, made worse by terrible weather in Europe and the US, and Lunar New Year slowdowns in Asia.
Hang tight - it'll come good.
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